As predicted, the Texas Compassionate Use Program (TCUP) is experiencing a slow and steady increase in registered patients. In the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, the patient number reached 50,520 and the registered physician number climbed to 707. These are historical numbers from the inception of the program, and it is still not clear what percentage of registered patients are active patients, or whether all of the registered physicians are practicing in the program.
In analyzing the results from 2021 and 2022, we found that the average monthly growth rate over those two years was 10.9%, ranging from 4.5% to 33.6% per month. The largest increase in registered patient numbers in 2021 coincides in time with the expansion of TCUP to include many more qualifying conditions. As such, the Texas legislature is likely to approve further expansion of this program to include chronic pain conditions and effectively remove the percentage ceiling on delta-9 THC, which will be subject to a qualified physician’s recommendation. Thus, the scenario of the fastest growth in registered patient numbers may repeat itself following the approval of the new legislature. However, if the average monthly rate remains similar to years 2021-22, then we can expect that in year 2023, over 50,000 more Texans will join the program and in year 2024 this number will likely exceed 400,000 patients.
At the same time, the TCUP license application cycle is about to close on April 28th with many hopeful applicants competing for a medical cannabis license. As this process unfolds, we will continue to share updates, predictions, and impressions on this process, with the aim of helping our subscribers better understand the medical cannabis program landscape in Texas.
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*Current TCUP numbers are drawn from the Texas Department of Public safety reports.